Representing ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower (which is transparent and not manipulable) and asking the subjects a series of allocation questions, we obtain data from which we can estimate by maximum likelihood methods (with explicit assumptions about the errors made by the subjects) a signicant subset of particular parameterisations of the empirically relevant models of behaviour unde ambiguity, and compare their relative explanatory and predictive abilities. Our results suggest that not all recent models of behaviour represent a major improvement in explanatory and predictive power, particularly the more theoretically sophisticated ones.

The explanatory and predictive power of non two-stage-probability theories of decision making under ambiguity

Pace N.
2014-01-01

Abstract

Representing ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower (which is transparent and not manipulable) and asking the subjects a series of allocation questions, we obtain data from which we can estimate by maximum likelihood methods (with explicit assumptions about the errors made by the subjects) a signicant subset of particular parameterisations of the empirically relevant models of behaviour unde ambiguity, and compare their relative explanatory and predictive abilities. Our results suggest that not all recent models of behaviour represent a major improvement in explanatory and predictive power, particularly the more theoretically sophisticated ones.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11575/106770
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